Theodore L. Turocy
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University
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This paper applies the theory of equilibrium in mixed strategies in an inspection game model to describe the strategic interaction in the stolen base play in baseball. A parsimonious simultaneous-move game model offers predictions about how the observable conduct of the teams on offense and defense responds as the characteristics of the players involved change. The theory organizes observations from play-by-play data from Major League Baseball, where highly-motivated, experienced professionals interact in an environment where private information is not significant.
Current version dated January 2005. Available in: [pdf].
Note that previous versions of some of the work included here have been circulated under the titles "Game Theory at the Ballpark" (June 2000), and "The Economic Value of the Stolen Base" (March 2003).